Political leaders and the corporate media are reacting with considerable alarm to the sweeping changes that Donald Trump is imposing as he begins to implement his by-now infamous “America First” approach to world affairs.

In a recent Maclean’s article, University of British Columbia political scientist Stewart Prest channels some of the fear and anger that Trump is generating within the ranks of the Canadian establishment and beyond. He writes, “Donald Trump is trying to turn global diplomacy into a lawless extortion racket, and the weaker the mark, the harder the shakedown.” And the dramatic shift taking place in Canada-US relations is reflected in his stark conclusion, “Dealing with a lawless and predatory United States requires a coordinated response… Canada must act now to galvanize other countries into standing together against his threats of economic coercion and territorial expansionism… It’s time to create a coalition of the unwilling.”

Prest sets out the rudiments of a plan for international measures of retaliation against the Trump administration, even including tentative suggestions for cooperation with China “in standing against US economic coercion,” which he justifies on the grounds that, “As the noted realist William Shakespeare observed, misery acquaints us with strange bedfellows.” He goes on to explore the prospects of life in the bleak new world that Trump is devising, noting that, “A renewed commitment by Canada to the idea of NATO, for instance, and a commitment to reinvest in collective defence may go a long way to encourage Europe to do likewise, and to explore opportunities for deeper economic ties.” There is even a heartfelt call for “a new approach to global governance, with or without American involvement” because “The world simply cannot afford to wait and hope American democratic institutions rein in this administration. There’s no guarantee they will.”

Global implications

In much the same way, Tim Ross and Jacopo Barigazzi pointed out in Politico that “Europe’s politicians… must now deal with an America that is at best skeptical and at worst hostile to the old world they represent.” They quote an anonymous European diplomat who bitterly complained that “We now have an alliance between a Russian president who wants to destroy Europe and an American president who also wants to destroy Europe.” Another commented, “The transatlantic alliance is over.”

The global implications of what is unfolding are certainly ominous but the writing was on the wall not only throughout the first Trump presidency, but also during Joe Biden’s failed attempt to create a more prudent and responsible alternative to a Trumpian future. In 2017, a Brookings Institution brief warned, “The liberal world order established in the aftermath of World War II may be coming to an end, challenged by forces both without and within.” Though many may have found that world order considerably less ‘liberal’ than the writers at the Brookings Institution, the concerns they raised eight years ago were not unfounded.

The concept of “America First” can be seen as a strategy to retain the benefits of being the dominant military and economic power, while discarding the costs and responsibilities of preserving the global framework in which that power has been exercised. Faced with major rivals, especially China, the hegemonic position of the US has been declining and its ability to operate as the cornerstone of a “rules-based” world order has been sapped.

It is in this context that Donald Trump launched his campaign to “Make America Great Again,” drawing around him the most reckless and reactionary elements of US society. Openly contemptuous of multilateral approaches, along with the institutions and alliances through which they have functioned, Trump adopts a ‘transactional’ style of operating. His plan, essentially, is to run a global extortion racket.

Whether the US seeks to contain its rivals, intensify its stranglehold on the Global South or obtain better terms from its junior partners, the new approach focuses on immediate gains with scant regard for global stability or long-term consequences. Trump will pursue his “art of the deal” on the geopolitical stage by issuing demands and attempting to force compliance by means of threats, economic pressure or even latter-day gunboat diplomacy. Weeks into the second Trump administration, this is already playing out in bewildering ways.

Allies in shock

Long before Trump took office it was clear that he had a very weak appetite for continuing to support the Ukrainian military struggle against Russia’s invading forces. However, the starkness of his about-face has taken other Western governments by surprise. He sought a deal with Putin and tried to extort an agreement from Ukraine on rare minerals. As MSNBC has noted, the US voted against a UN resolution, backed by the major European powers, that called for “Russia’s withdrawal from Ukraine’s internationally recognized borders.”

All this led to a stormy meeting between Zelensky, Trump and Vance that temporarily appeared to spell the collapse of the minerals agreement. According to NBC News, “Trump and other US officials felt disrespected and asked Zelensky to leave the White House.” Subsequently, Trump posted that the Ukrainian president had “disrespected the United States of America in its cherished Oval Office.”

This dramatic turn of events sets the stamp on a massive course change by the Trump administration that calls into question far more than the approach to the Ukraine conflict. The post-war military alliance and broader alignment with the European powers are now hanging in the balance. Though some might focus on the ideological affinity between Trump and Putin, these developments are entirely in line with the America First approach. An accord with Russia, a lesser rival, is being cemented in order to focus on efforts to contain the rising power of China, with little regard for consequences on the European continent.

Perhaps the sharpest manifestation of Trump’s broad strategic shift is his turn to protectionism. Clearly, he sees the use of the tariff weapon as a magic bullet that can restore American greatness. Trump is convinced that tariffs will raise enough revenue to finance massive tax cuts for the rich and even make it possible to abolish income tax outright. He considers them a way of forcing competitors to shift productive facilities to locations inside the US. He also expects tariffs to contain and humble China while serving as a weapon to exact concessions on any number of issues from country after country.

The problems that will arise with this approach points to the obstacles that lie ahead for the whole America First project. As VoxEU has perceptively noted, “…the US is not simply an economic hegemon but also a political and military superpower and many of its supposed allies are now being targeted economically. The leverage the US has over others is thus much more complex than economic dependence. That Trump will use his leverage is pretty certain, what the responses by countries will be and the consequences for the world economy and geo-political order, is much harder to predict.”

Trump thinks he can abandon allies and extract additional tribute from them to strengthen his hand for the game of global rivalry with the rising power of China. Yet, paradoxically, he is destroying the alliances and the whole international framework through which the US has maintained its dominant role over several generations. The world order that Biden tried to save may be lost, but it is unlikely that Trump’s alternative will provide a viable replacement.

It must be stressed, however, that the America First juggernaut will not only upset the international framework brokered by the ruling powers. It also has severe implications for working class people across the planet. In the US itself, the Trump agenda will involve class war, massive austerity and a frightening intensification of racial injustices. Elon Musk’s already notorious Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is the most visible manifestation of this approach. The countries affected by Trump’s rampage will face major challenges. The European powers are now dealing with the loss of US military support and there is great pressure to increase spending in this area. Indeed, the above-mentioned Maclean’s article calls for a “renewed commitment by Canada to the idea of NATO.”

As Trump’s protectionism plays out, the former junior partners of the US will develop strategies to deal with this shattering transformation and a premium will be placed on boosting “competitiveness” while imposing the burden on workers and communities. As The Breach has noted, corporate lobbyists in Canada are using the present situation to further their efforts to minimize provincial regulations protecting workers, consumers and the environment. This is just a harbinger of the major attacks on quality of life that we can expect as governments and corporations weather the storm unleashed by the Trump administration.

The America First turn is an historic strategic shift by a still dominant but decaying global power desperately clinging to its erstwhile grandeur. As the US redefines its global role and its approach to international relations with Trump at the helm, the world is going to become a far more unstable and threatening place than it already is. In this enormously challenging context, the pivotal but still uncertain question will be the scale and strength of working class resistance and the popular struggles that are taken up.

John Clarke is a writer and retired organizer for the Ontario Coalition Against Poverty (OCAP). Follow his tweets at @JohnOCAP and blog at johnclarkeblog.com.