The brutal war in Ukraine is now in its second year with no serious prospect of ending. All the main parties remain committed to victory rather than a mutually acceptable settlement based on negotiations without preconditions. What follows is a preliminary assessment of the main parties’ relative gains and losses per their stated objectives.

The worst is still avoidable in Ukraine. If a settlement is to be found, the White House should urgently restore high-level dialogue with the Kremlin. The main goal must be to facilitate peace in Ukraine with a view to maintaining shared security in wider Europe and beyond—not to simply punish or isolate Putin and engage in full-scale financial war with Russia.

The European continent is entering a new era of social and political divisions comparable to those of the Cold War. The possibility of further escalation is now closer than ever. Instead of building an inclusive and just international order, Russia and most European nations will now rely mainly on nuclear weapons and military preparations for their security.

The Biden administration is likely to continue to obstruct a multilateral European settlement with a new place for Ukraine and Russia in the continent’s security system. The Kremlin will conclude that more “tensions” are needed for moving the US toward comprehensive negotiations on the European and international order. Crisis bargaining has become the order of the day.

What drives the Western war scare has more to do with the West itself than with Putin’s unpredictability. Domestic and foreign affairs of the last decade have left the West weak and deeply confused. This loss of confidence does a disservice to conducting a measured assessment of Russia’s foreign policy and motives in its relations with Ukraine.