Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s victory in Brazil’s October 30 presidential vote is worth celebrating. Indeed, the last few years have been a sustained test of the former president’s popularity among the Brazilian population. From the most popular president in Brazilian history, to imprisoned on politically motivated charges, to defeating the man who colluded with a corrupt judiciary to imprison him, the ups and downs of the past five years have proven that even in the face of continuous smear jobs and criminal frameups, Lula’s popularity remains with most Brazilians.

The victory is historic for many reasons. Not only did Lula come roaring out of prison with an anti-Bolsonaro election campaign that resonated throughout the country, he also became the first presidential candidate in Brazil’s history to deny an incumbent a second term. This fact is extremely telling. Jair Bolsonaro, who entered office with the firm backing of the country’s business elite and much of its media apparatus, was unable to snatch a victory from Lula, who has faced uninterrupted demonization from those same sectors. This is another testament to Lula’s popularity with the majority of Brazilians.

While it is true that Lula chose to align himself with more centrist and pro-business elements during his election campaign⁠—his running mate and current Vice President-elect Geraldo Alckmin ran to the right of Lula in the 2006 presidential elections⁠—the fact that a demonized and imprisoned left-wing politician was able to hand a defeat to a well-backed right-wing incumbent is momentous indeed.

At the same time, celebrations of Lula’s victory may overlook one key aspect of the election results: the congressional side. In this election, Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party managed to become the largest party in the National Congress, a strong positioning that will allow them to throw a wrench in the new president’s plans, especially domestically.

Additionally, the possibility of a coup attempt is not zero. At the time of this writing, Bolsonaro has remained silent, tacitly refusing to acknowledge his defeat. Meanwhile, pro-Bolsonaro truckers have blockaded over 300 roadways in at least 18 of Brazil’s 26 states, urging Bolsonaro to reject the results. One potential factor that might forestall a coup attempt has been the international response to Lula’s victory.

The 1964 military coup against left-wing president João Goulart was partially organized from Washington, as was the 2016 legal coup against former Workers’ Party President Dilma Rousseff. In the case of the latest election, however, both Washington and European governments quickly recognized Bolsonaro’s defeat. According to Brazilian newspaper O Globo, foreign governments coordinated an “express” response to the election results, making it harder for Bolsonaro to contest the outcome. It thus appears that Bolsonaro’s aggressive and haphazard governing style may have made him too big a liability in the eyes of his former international backers, as it did with some of his powerful domestic supporters during his presidency.

Lula's victory in Brazil means leftists now lead Latin America's seven largest nations by population and six largest by GDP. #PatriaGrande

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— Ald. Carlos Ramirez-Rosa ✶ (@CDRosa) October 30, 2022

While the election results did not thwart Bolsonarismo, meaning Lula’s domestic agenda will face significant challenges, his regional policy will likely continue the trend toward regional integration that has been reemergent in Latin America in recent years. During his former presidency (2003-2010), Brazil was an important member of regional organizations including UNASUR and collaborated extensively with leftist states in the region, including Cuba, Venezuela, and Bolivia.

During his latest presidential campaign, Lula promised to renew relations with Venezuela, which were cut off under Bolsonaro. At a campaign event in August 2022, he referred to the man recognized as Venezuela’s president by Canada and the US, Juan Guaidó, as an “impostor” and stated: “Brazil is going to treat Venezuela with respect. I hope Europe will treat it with respect, and I hope the United States re-establishes relations with Venezuela.” A short time later, Guaidó endorsed Bolsonaro’s re-election.

Shortly after Lula’s victory, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro announced that he and Lula had agreed to resume a “binational agenda of cooperation” between the countries. Lula’s victory is certainly welcome news in Caracas; with Bolsonaro gone, former leaders of the anti-Maduro Lima Group have continued falling like dominos. While five years ago, most of Venezuela’s land borders were shared with outwardly hostile states calling for the government’s overthrow, today Colombia under Gustavo Petro and Brazil under President-elect Lula are looking to normalize relations and reintegrate Caracas into the regional economy.

Lula was also congratulated by Bolivian President Luis Arce. Following the 2019 military coup against former Bolivian President Evo Morales, Bolsonaro offered his full support to the unelected Jeanine Áñez government. After Bolivian unions and social organizations pressured Áñez into holding elections that saw the return to power of the socialist-oriented MAS party, perpetrators of the 2019 coup began to face legal ramifications in Bolivia, leading some officials to flee to Brazil (Bolsonaro even offered asylum to Áñez after she was sentenced to 10 years in prison for illegally assuming the presidency). Bolivia has already stated that, with Lula in office, they will request the extradition of the remaining coup plotters.

While many of the left-leaning governments currently leading Latin American nations face tremendous challenges at home⁠, the elections of these governments foretell positive things for the continued economic integration of the Latin American region.

The stats are hopeful: currently, left-leaning governments lead Latin America’s seven largest nations by population. Five years ago, only one of them was led by a left-wing government: Venezuela. Alongside the recent election victories of Gabriel Boric in Chile and Gustavo Petro in Colombia, Lula’s victory contributes to Latin American’s return to the left and the regional cooperation that this shift has historically implied.

Owen Schalk is a writer based in Winnipeg. He is primarily interested in applying theories of imperialism, neocolonialism, and underdevelopment to global capitalism and Canada’s role therein. Visit his website at www.owenschalk.com.