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Opposition must work fast to prevent Harper take-over
(From Straight Goods by Ish Theilheimer. Oct 15) Campaign 2008 has come and gone in Canada and left a lot of gaping jaws. The Harper Conservatives got a percentage and a half more of the of vote than in 2006 — but won 13 more parliamentary seats as Liberals support collapsed, especially in Ontario.
In the leaders’ debates, the four opposition leaders disagreed about many things, but they were entirely united on one point: Stephen Harper, Spawn of Satan (SoS), must be defeated because he is taking Canada in the wrong direction. Don’t look now, but Harper is hurtling down the runway and about to take off leaving the Canada that 63 percent of us know and love in the rearview.
Unless the opposition parties work very quickly together, Harper will have free reign to govern for a full term.
The Conservative leader said on the campaign trail that a renewed minority would give him a stronger mandate. This struck many as improbable, but the logic is real. If the opposition parties could not defeat him in the campaign and prove unable to challenge him with a coalition or accord-style government, they are unlikely to stand up to him in Parliament and force another election.
Here is where things get interesting. At the time of writing, Harper has won or leads in 143 seats. The Liberals have 75, the Bloc 50, and the NDP 38. No two parties on their own can form a coalition to challenge the Conservative claim to govern. It will take the cooperation of three. They don’t all have to be part of the coalition. Stéphane Dion and Jack Layton could conceivably make a case to the Governor General for forming a government if they had an undertaking from Gilles Duceppe that he would support their legislative agenda.
Of course the idea is a stretch. The Liberals and NDP hate one another, and the Bloc is not a federalist party. But all agree Stephen Harper is SoS, and Gilles Duceppe could make a strong case that he can best defend Quebec’s interests by defeating Harper’s government. Stopping a Harper majority proved to be Duceppe’s great campaign promise and accomplishment, so this sort of arrangement could make sense to him.
Arriving at such a deal will require fast work to forge a governing agenda that all parties could live with, including significant provincial self-determination to satisfy the Bloc. It will also require a lot of pride-swallowing on all fronts.
None of the leaders will find it easy to accept what two thirds of Canadians might dearly love them to do, which is to work together. They fear, of course, that supporting another party in any way will threaten their party’s idenity and raison d’être. Many recall the 1985 Liberal-NDP accord in Ontario, which, two years later, resulted in a Liberal sweep. Of course, three years after that came an NDP majority, so it is difficult to say with any certainty that the accord hurt the NDP in the long term.
Rather than endlessly speculate about whether a coalition is likely or possible, it is more important to speed the process along so the Governor General gets a chance to make a choice regarding Canada’s next government. The best way to do so is to help the political leaders by offering up a short list outlining the kind of compromises they will have to make to take Canada off Harper’s track. Jack Layton gave positive signals on election night that he would work with other parties to stop Harper. Now the spotlight turns to Dion.
The Liberal, NDP and Bloc platforms offer some common elements. They include money for public health, child and elder care (however administered and delivered), culture, affordable housing, public transit and municipal infrastructure. On the fiscal side, compromises will be needed to fund these programs. The NDP may have to compromise on the corporate taxes it would not cut. They might also have to accept some sort of modified carbon tax, while the Liberals accept cap-and-trade, which Stéphane Dion has endorsed all along anyway. An accelerated timetable for getting out of Afghanistan would appear necessary. And protection for Quebec’s unique cultural identity, which proved so crucial in this election campaign, must be part of the deal.
There is not a lot of time to work here. If Stephen Harper is given an opportunity to form another government, he will be able to move rapidly with his agenda. He will continue to isolate Canada as one of the last world leaders who still believes in what has, increasingly, become a failed and disproved ideology of deregulation and privatization in order to let speculators and big corporations run free.
Dion and Layton have to figure out a way to live together, along with the Bloc Québécois, to prevent a Harper take-over.
Ish Theilheimer has been Publisher of the leading, and oldest, independent Canadian online newsmagazine, StraightGoods.ca, since founding it in September 1999. He is also Managing Editor of PublicValues.ca. He lives wth his wife Kathy in Golden Lake, ON, in the Ottawa Valley.
Email: ish@straightgoods.com.
Matthew Brett is the Canadian Dimension weblog manager. The views expressed on this blog do not necessarily represent his own. Read more by Matthew Brett.
At 2 am the only thought that gave me peace, was this.
I do not understand how government formation works, but hope they join forces to rid Harper of power. I suppose then he will call yet another election. UG.
#1. Posted by Gail on October 16th 2008 at 3:15pm
During the Leadership debates, it was very apparent that all parties aside from Con’s could work together.
I have no idea why Canada failed in voting. I have been sick. Harper want to ruin the Liberals no matter what it takes, suing for his own big mistakes, the Cadman widow ran for CPC party? Strange. It is obvious there was a bribe presented. Talk about editing which did not happen with Cadman issue, what did he do with Dion? Everything will cost more with Dion…......
Editing…...http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2kzU8szeMA
It makes me sick as Mr. Dion was courteous and is a man of dignity. These deceptive attacks were prepared well in advance of the election call.
Many voters do not try to educate themselves and only see what is presented on their television, apart from the news.
CTV did a terrible injustice and I am unimpressed.
#2. Posted by Gail on October 17th 2008 at 4:15am